Toucan

Toucan

Thursday, July 26, 2012

China and Realpolitik

When I was growing up, two of the measures routinely cited by commentators to demonstrate the power of the United States were the tons of steel produced and the number of cars manufactured in America every year compared to the rest of the world. Things have certainly changed dramatically in just a few decades. Consider the following:
--- China now produces nearly half of the world's steel vs around 5% for the US. Even Europe, not a low cost area, produces twice as much as we do.
--- China is now the world's largest market for both the production and sale of automobiles vs the US, where the car companies required federal assistance to avoid bankruptcy. Chrysler is now owned by a foreign company and GM sells more cars in China than in the US. Buicks are apparently a hot item in China.
--- China last year became the world's largest market for art and antiques.
--- China has foreign reserves of over $3 trillion vs national debt of $16 trillion in the US.
--- China is still growing at more than 8% a year, down from double digit growth for years vs a US economy with over 8% unemployment and little growth year over year.

According to former US Senator Alan Simpson (R,WY), co-chairman of the Bowles-Simpson Commission, things are so bad that the US, which is under treaty obligation to defend Taiwan in case of attack, would not be able to do so without a loan from China to finance the war. The ascendance of China on the world stage as a superpower is not a new revelation. As former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has pointed out, China has existed for something like 5,000 years, and for most of that time it has been the strongest and wealthiest country in the world. The past couple of hundred years, he noted, were aberrations. China is now once again starting to claim its position of power on the world scene.

Personally, I'm thankful that I'm living here and not there. I would not enjoy their lack of political, economic, and personal freedom. Their smog-filled cities and increasingly polluted environment-- the result of rapid industrialization-- would not appeal either. However, realpolitik dictates that this is not an appropriate time to espouse American exceptionalism or assert that America must reclaim its position as the number one unchallenged superpower in the world. Yet this is precisely what Mitt Romney has been doing on the campaign trail lately, and it's just plain wrong-- even as campaign rhetoric.

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